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Tuesday, January 18, 2005
 
Individual Offense, Iowa/Illinois
As promised, today's post takes a look at the individual offensive contributions of Illinois (and Iowa) players, as measured by the statistical creations of Dean Oliver. Let's get all the numbers out of the way before any commentary. New readers will likely benefit from perusing the Hawkeye Hoops Stats Glossary. Bold print indicates the Big Ten leader in a category.

ILLINOIS
Name..........................MPG...Floor%...Off Rate...%Poss...Pts/G...Reb/G...Ast/G...TO/G
Luther Head...............31.9....0.573..........150.......21.0%.....16.3........4.0.........4.4.........1.4
Deron Williams...........32.0....0.492..........122.......26.5%.....13.4........3.7.........7.0.........2.9
Dee Brown.................31.6....0.561..........146.......19.3%.....13.3........2.7.........5.2.........1.9
Roger Powell Jr..........24.9....0.642..........140.......19.8%.....12.9........5.2.........0.4.........0.7
James Augustine........24.2....0.669..........139.......18.3%.......9.8........7.3.........1.3.........1.1
Nick Smith...................12.8....0.478..........102.......21.8%.......4.3........2.7.........0.8.........0.7
Rich McBride...............16.7....0.418..........120.......11.6%.......3.9........1.5.........0.8.........0.6
Jack Ingram.................13.7....0.537..........115.......14.9%.......3.5........2.8.........0.5.........0.5

IOWA
Name..........................MPG...Floor%...Off Rate...%Poss...Pts/G...Reb/G...Ast/G...TO/G
Pierre Pierce..............32.8....0.468..........104.......30.8%.....17.9........5.8.........3.9.........3.9
Jeff Horner.................34.9....0.507..........130.......19.9%.....14.1........4.6.........5.8.........2.6
Adam Haluska............27.6....0.543..........137.......18.0%.....13.1........3.4.........1.3.........1.1
Greg Brunner.............29.8....0.547..........116.......21.9%.....13.0........8.1.........2.3.........2.4
Erek Hansen...............23.5....0.478............99.......16.6%.......6.9........3.1.........0.7.........1.3
Doug Thomas.............14.9....0.582..........116.......15.0%......4.7........4.2.........0.4.........0.9
Mike Henderson..........15.4....0.442............96........16.3%......3.8........1.4.........1.2.........1.3
Carlton Reed..............10.4....0.490..........122........13.3%.......3.1........0.9........0.4.........0.4

As always, floor percentage measures how many of a player's individual possessions contribute to the team scoring at least one point. Offensive rating is how many points a player produces per 100 individual possessions. Points can be produced through field goals, free throws, assists, and offensive rebounds.

Here's a few lists to familiarize you with each of the non-traditional numbers.

Big Ten Leaders, Floor % (minimum 8 ppg)
James Augustine, Ill...................0.669
Roger Powell Jr., Ill....................0.642
Alan Anderson, MSU.................0.616
D.J. White, Ind............................0.612
Kelvin Torbert, MSU.................0.607
J.J. Sullinger, OSU.....................0.590
Carl Landry, Pur........................0.587
Paul Davis, MSU........................0.583
Terence Dials, OSU...................0.577
Luther Head, Ill.........................0.573

Big Ten Leaders, Offensive Rating (min 8 ppg)
Luther Head, Ill..................150.........21.0%
Kelvin Torbert, MSU.........150.........18.3%
Dee Brown, Ill.....................146.........19.3%
Chris Hill, MSU...................145.........18.6%
Alan Anderson, MSU.........142.........21.9%
Roger Powell Jr., Ill............140.........19.8%
James Augustine, Ill...........139.........18.3%
Adam Haluska, Iowa..........137.........18.0%
Maurice Ager, MSU............131.........22.9%
Je'Kel Foster, OSU..............131.........15.4%

As tends to happen, the leaders in floor % are generally post players, and the leaders in offensive rating are generally perimeter players. That Illinois has two post players on the offensive rating leader board is a testament to the team's offensive efficiency.

Big Ten Leaders, % of Team Possessions Used (min 8 ppg)
Pierre Pierce, Iowa............104...........30.8%
Michael Thompson, NW......95...........29.5%
Chris Hunter, Mich............115...........28.3%
Bracey Wright, Ind............112...........28.2%
Carl Landry, Pur................124...........27.1%
Deron Williams, Ill.............122...........26.5%
Matt Kiefer, Pur..................98............25.9%
Jeff Hagen, Minn................116...........25.7%
Tony Stockman, OSU........108...........25.5%
Alando Tucker, Wisc..........120...........25.4%

OK, I threw out a few more numbers than I was originally planning, but I wanted to highlight the relationship between a player's offensive rating and the per cent of his team's possessions that he uses. Notice that the players with the highest ratings are not ball hogs, and that none of the players with high possession numbers have really high offensive ratings. Each player generally becomes more efficient when he uses fewer of his team's possessions.

Also note that the % of poss. numbers represent the amount of team's possessions a player uses while he is in the game. Chris Hunter has only the 4th highest number of possessions on Michigan's team, but at only 20.5 mpg, he has the team's highest possessions to minutes ratio.

What do the numbers say?
First, Illinois has a very efficient offense (as you might remember from yesterday). The Big Ten average for floor % is about 0.500, and 109 for offensive rating. Illinois has several players well above both marks. Deron Williams leads the team in both shot attempts and turnovers, so it makes sense that he leads the team in possessions used. Dee Brown has 240 points to Williams's 241, so it also makes sense that Brown has a much higher offensive rating. Brown and Head have been great shooters (1st and 4th in the Big Ten in adjFG%), and their low TO rates combine to give them the great offensive ratings.

Iowa is "led" by a rather inefficient player, Pierre Pierce. His missed shots, free throws, and turnovers lead to a floor % that is far below league average. He's definitely not the guy you want using over 30% of your team's possessions. Horner and Haluska have been brights spots, but both tend to disappear when someone doesn't create an open shot for them. Erek Hansen has been futile on offense, especially in the Big Ten, but his perceived value to the defense keeps him in the starting lineup.

I'll leave you to the numbers - I need to tend to some homework.

Before I forget, I should alert you to some Illini blogs that I enjoy. Check them out if you haven't already. Illini Wonk, Illinitalk, and Mark Tupper all provide excellent coverage of the nation's #1 team.

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