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Thursday, January 20, 2005
 
Samsonite....I Was Way Off
I was working on some of Dean Oliver's calculations for defensive ratings today, and the disparity between offensive and defensive ratings seemed a little improbable.

I scanned through the formulas for offensive ratings, points produced, individual possessions, and all that good stuff, and I found a noteworthy error. I was using the wrong weight in one formula, which resulted in understating offensive rebounding contributions and overstating field goals, assists, and free throws.

When I recalculated, most players' offensive rating dropped 8-12 points per 100 possessions. Thought I'd let you know before I trot those stats out again later this week.

Here's a revamped top 15 so you can see how the more efficient end of the range looks.

Big Ten Leaders, Offensive Rating (min 8 pts produced per game)
Luther Head, Ill........................138
Kelvin Torbert, MSU................138
James Augustine, Ill................137
Alan Anderson, MSU...............135
Dee Brown, Ill...........................134
Roger Powell Jr., Ill..................134
Chris Hill, MSU.........................133
Adam Haluska, Iowa................127
J.J. Sullinger, OSU..................126
D.J. White, Ind.........................124
Maurice Ager, MSU.................124
Ivan Harris, OSU.....................124
Vincent Grier, Minn.................122
Carl Landry, Pur......................122
Jeff Horner, Iowa.....................121

As always, don't forget about the % of possessions caveat. It's easier to be more efficient when using fewer of your team's possessions. In fact, Landry is the only player on this list who leads his team in possessions used.

Still confused by terms like possessions, offensive rating, or points produced? Be sure to check out the Hawkeye Hoops Stats Glossary or send a question.

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