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Thursday, March 03, 2005
 
Crashing the Boards
I've been looking at different rebounding stats lately in order to make a case for more playing time for Doug Thomas (as you may have noticed). My stat of choice was the simple but effective rebounds per 40 minutes, which is a clear step up from rebounds per game, but still has its biases. Teams that play at a fast pace, that miss a lot of shots, and force a lot of misses give their players more opportunities for rebounds, and a thus a higher rebounds per 40 minutes. So a player like James Augustine from Illinois might be adversely affected, as his team plays slow and shoots at a very high rate.

I checked around at some other analytical sites, and the rebounding stat of choice looks something like this -

Rebounding % = Rebounds / [(Team Rebounds + Opponent's Rebounds) x (Minutes / Team Minutes)]

It measures how many rebounds a players gets, based only on the rebounds that are available, and is adjusted for playing time. It's nothing new to most statheads, but it's an improvement from what I've been using. Let's take a look at the Big Ten leaderboard, using season stats. I only used players who played at least 25% of the team's minutes.

Player.......................................Reb%
Paul Davis, MSU......................18.0%
Aaron Johnson, PSU................17.6%
J'son Stamper, Minn................17.1%
James Augustine, Ill.................17.1%
Doug Thomas, Iowa................16.5%
Brent Petway, Mich..................15.7%
Pat Ewing Jr., Ind.....................15.3%
Greg Brunner, Iowa...............15.0%
Terence Dials, OSU.................14.7%
Carl Landry, Pur......................14.6%
Delco Rowley, MSU.................14.5%
Jeff Hagen, Minn......................14.5%
Courtney Sims, Mich...............14.3%
Mike Wilkinson, Wisc..............14.2%
Graham Brown, Mich..............14.1%
Alando Tucker, Wisc...............13.3%
Roger Powell Jr., Ill.................13.0%
Alan Anderson, MSU...............12.9%
Jack Ingram, Ill........................12.6%
Nick Smith, Ill...........................12.6%

Since players aren't equally adept at offensive and defensive rebounding, I'll list the leaders for those two as well.

Player............................................Oreb%
J'son Stamper, Minn....................15.0%
Aaron Johnson, PSU....................14.2%
Delco Rowley, MSU......................14.0%
Carl Landry, Pur...........................13.6%
James Augustine, Ill.....................13.4%
Pat Ewing Jr., Ind.........................12.7%
Doug Thomas, Iowa....................12.5%
Jack Ingram, Ill.............................11.6%
Geary Claxton, PSU......................11.5%
Brent Petway, Mich......................11.4%
Roger Powell Jr., Ill......................11.4%
Jeff Hagen, Minn...........................11.3%
Courtney Sims, Mich....................11.2%
Paul Davis, MSU...........................10.9%
Terence Dials, OSU......................10.5%
Mike Wilkinson, Wisc...................10.4%
Alan Anderson, MSU....................10.3%
Graham Brown, Mich.....................9.9%
Alando Tucker, Wisc......................9.8%
Greg Brunner, Iowa.....................9.6%

Player.............................................Dreb%
Paul Davis, MSU............................24.4%
Aaron Johnson, PSU.....................21.0%
James Augustine, Ill.......................20.5%
Doug Thomas, Iowa....................20.3%
Greg Brunner, Iowa....................20.0%
Zach Morley, Wisc........................19.6%
Brent Petway, Mich......................19.6%
J'son Stamper, Minn.....................19.3%
Terence Dials, OSU.....................18.9%
J.J. Sullinger, OSU.......................18.4%
Nick Smith, Ill.................................18.2%
Pat Ewing Jr., Ind..........................17.9%
Mike Wilkinson, Wisc....................17.9%
Graham Brown, Mich....................17.9%
Jeff Hagen, Minn............................17.6%
Courtney Sims, Mich.....................17.2%
Alando Tucker, Wisc.....................16.7%
Travis Parker, PSU.......................15.9%
Mohamed Hachad, NW................15.7%
Carl Landry, Pur...........................15.5%

Michigan State and Wisconsin currently rank 1-2 in defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten, based mainly on the strength of guys like Paul Davis, Mike Wilkinson, Zach Morley and Alando Tucker. Iowa currently ranks 7th in this category. If Doug Thomas were to play, say 22-26 mpg, is there any doubt they'd climb up the chart rather quickly? If his increased playing time came at the expense of Erek Hansen, the offense surely wouldn't suffer (see stat chart here). Let the PT for DT campaign begin!

Some of you Hawk fans might be curious how Reggie Evans rated in these categories. Here are his rates from his senior season.

Reb%.............Oreb%..........Dreb%
19.1%..............12.6%............25.3%

Yeesh, and I thought Paul Davis's numbers were dominating. By the way, Evans is currently leading the NBA in overall rebound %. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted.
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